The college football world was hoping for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, including three relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't appear to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular pick with the general public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to total dollars since Monday afternoon.
"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market as well. Remember that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matches - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke to a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to push the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Even though reputable money has actually can be found in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do just that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
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While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only video game in the area. We talked with numerous bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line sneaks up a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes prepared for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home canine.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker discussed that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before reputable cash pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat greater bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the cash has actually can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable cash at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The overall has actually increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest relocation of any of the totals. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that deals with sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio gamblers believed we were too low. Our opening cost of Ohio State -1 has been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Basically, the sports betting action.
Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at numerous sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
Carl Luu edited this page 2025-01-04 16:26:20 +01:00